IIP rebounds, retail inflation inches up

India's industrial output growth posted a muted rebound in July and retail inflation inched up marginally in August, prompting economists to say that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates when it reviews monetary policy next month to revive growth which has slumped to a six-year low in the April-June quarter of the current financial year.

Industrial output rose to a two-month high of 4.3% in July, higher than downwardly revised 1.2% in June and lower than 6.5% in the same period last year. The latest data set comes against the backdrop of a slowdown in the economy and mounting criticism of the government’s handling of the situation. The Centre has unveiled a string of measures to counter the slowdown impact and more steps are in the pipeline to boost growth.

The data showed manufacturing sector grew a sluggish 4.2% compared to 7% in July 2018. The capital goods sector, which is a key gauge of industrial activity, contracted for the second consecutive month and declined by 7.1% in July compared to an expansion of 2.3% in the same month last year. The consumer durables sector contracted by 2.7% compared to a growth of 14.1%.

Economists urged caution about deriving any recovery trend from the July factory output data.

Separate data released by the NSO showed inflation as measured by the consumer price index rose to a 10-month high of 3.2% in August, nearly similar levels of 3.1% in the previous month led by a surge in food and vegetable prices. Food prices rose to a 14-month high in August, largely driven by vegetable prices, influenced by some disruption in supplies due to floods in some parts of the country. This was the 13 consecutive months when retail inflation remained below the RBI’s comfort zone.

August 2019: Retail Inflation @ 10-month High of 3.21%

India’s retail inflation climbed up to a 10-month high of 3.21% in August but stayed below the central bank’s 4% medium-term target, strengthening expectations of another rate cut next month.

Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index was 3.15% in July and 3.69% in August 2018. The previous high was 3.38% in October 2018.

Inflation in the food basket was 2.99%, up from 2.36% in July. However, retail inflation is within the Reserve Bank India’s target range of 4%, with deviation of 2% on either side. The RBI governor-led Monetary Policy Committee will take a call on interest rates on October 4.

Inflation mainly originated from meat and fish, vegetables, pulses and products, health, education, and personal care and effects.

Inflation in meat and fish basket was 8.51%, pulses and products 6.94% and vegetables 6.9%. Retail inflation in health was 7.84%, recreation and amusement 5.54 % and personal care and effects 6.38 %. Price rise in the ‘education’ segment was recorded at 6.1% in August.

Economists expect CPI to inch up going ahead but remain within the RBI’s target.

CARE Ratings expects policy rates to be cut by another 40 bps for the remainder of the financial year.

Welfare of Kashmiris in integration: Jamiat

Coming out strongly against Pakistan’s attempt to “use Indian Muslims” to orchestrate propaganda against India on international forums like United Nations, Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind said welfare of Kashmiris lies in integration with India and added that J&K is an integral part of India.

At its meeting the Jamiat adopted a resolution stating that it can never support any separatist movement and that it considers such movements harmful for the country as a whole, and to the people of Kashmir.

Asked specifically, if support to the government on J&K meant Jamiat is supportive of abrogation of special status for the state under Article 370, JUH general secretary Maulana Mahmood Madani chose the “no comment” route but went on to say the organisation stood “shoulder to shoulder” with the government on J&K being an integral part of India.

“Despite our differences with the government on certain issues, we are today standing shoulder to shoulder with it as we are clear that Kashmir is an integral part of India and we will not allow Pakistan to use Indian Muslims to orchestrate a propaganda on international forums like United Nations in the name of human rights violations. Hence we will not comment on Article 370 as of now,” he said.

In a separate resolution, JUH welcomed the NRC.

Mumbai-Ahmedabad Bullet train fare to be ₹ 3000

National High Speed Rail Corporation Ltd managing director Achal Khare told media that the one-way fare of the high speed rail (bullet train) between Ahmedabad and Mumbai is estimated to be Rs.3,000 at current rates. Khare gave the figure on the basis of a ‘willingness to pay survey’ carried out by the Indo-Japanese joint venture during feasibility report.

The train, with an average speed of 320 kmph, will cover the distance of 508 km in two hours seven minutes.

Answering a question about possible pricing of the much-awaited bullet train — with the project deadline set for December 2023, Khare said that a number of factors affect the pricing decision and it is difficult to ascertain a number for the future. “But the ‘willingness to pay survey’ carried out by us showed that passengers including those travelling by airlines and railways were ready to pay 1.5 times the fare of a first-class coach. In general terms, it comes to around Rs.3,000 at current rates,” he said.

NHSRCL officials unveiled the concept designs for upcoming stations at Sabarmati and Saraspur near Kalupur along with the plans for the multi-modal transport hub at Kalupur and Sabarmati. On the sidelines of the event, the officials said that at its peak, the bullet train project will have 70 trains — 35 up and 35 down — from Sabarmati in Ahmedabad and Bandra-Kurla Complex in Mumbai.

Khare told reporters that about 50% of the land acquisition — 2,600-plus plots out of the required 5,400-plus privately-owned ones in Gujarat has been completed with consent agreement with payment done. “In quantity, it comes to about 360 hectare,” he said.

The high-speed rail authority has issued tenders for four major civil works on the route including construction of viaducts and an undersea tunnel in Maharashtra. The work is likely to start by March-April 2020.

Maharashtra: Congress, NCP lose 2 heavyweights to BJP

The exodus from the Congress and NCP to the BJP continues as former parliamentary affairs minister and senior Congress leader Harshvardhan Patil joined the saffron party on Wednesday. The same day Navi Mumbai strongman and former excise minister and senior NCP leader Ganesh Naik too joined the BJP.

Naik’s entry is particularly significant as he has brought with him 52 NCP corporators. It will help the BJP wrest control of the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation from the NCP. Currently, BJP has only 6 corporators in NMMC.

Harshvardhan’s exit is a huge setback for the Congress in western Maharashtra as he controls several sugar cooperatives and other institutions in the region. An event organised by the BJP to welcome him into the party fold was attended by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and state BJP president Chandrakant Patil.

‘Ashamed about Jallianwala Bagh’: Archbishop of Canterbury

Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby said that he was ashamed and sorry for the Jallianwala Bagh massacre of 1919.

The comments came as Welby concluded his India tour by a visit to the Jallianwala Bagh memorial in Amritsar.

While paying his respects at the memorial, he said, “I cannot speak for the British government. I am not an official of the British government but can speak on the name of Christ. It is a place for sin and redemption. Because you have remembered what they have done and their name will live, their memory will live.”

“I am so ashamed and sorry for the impact of this crime committed here. I can’t speak for the government. That is for the government to do. I am a religious leader, not a politician. As a religious leader, I mourn the tragedy I see here,” Welby said.

He also read out a prayer to seek forgiveness from god for the act.

He wrote in the visitor book, “It is deeply humbling and provoke feelings of profound shame to visit this place that witness such atrocities hundred years ago. My first response is to pray for healing of relatives, of descendants, of our relationships with India and its wonderful people. But, that prayer renews in me a desire to pray and act so that together we may learn from history, root out hatred, promote reconciliation and globally seek the common good.”

When asked if he would ask British government to seek an apology for the massacre, he said, “I think have been very clear what I feel and that will be broadcast in England.”

About his experience in India, Welby said, “It has been a pilgrimage. It has been for prayer. It has been for me a lesson of profound learning and privilege that I will never forget. I admire all the potential and hope that this country offers to the world.”

Jallianwala Bagh massacre took place on 13 April 1919.

India strongly rejects China-Pak statement on J&K

India strongly rejected the reference to J&K in the joint statement issued by China and Pakistan after the recent visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to Islamabad, and said J&K was an integral part of India.

In a statement, the government said India has consistently expressed concerns to both China and Pakistan on projects in the so-called China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which falls in Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan since 1947.

“India is resolutely opposed to any actions by other countries to change the status quo in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. We call on the parties concerned to cease such actions,” MEA spokesman Raveesh Kumar said. According to the joint statement, China had reaffirmed its support for Pakistan on Kashmir and said that it opposed any unilateral actions that could complicate the regional situation.

The statement was issued on Sunday after the conclusion of Wang Yi’s two-day visit to Pakistan where he held talks with Pakistani PM Imran Khan, his counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi, President Arif Alvi, and army chief Qamar Bajwa.