Trade numbers bring cheer

India's international trade data for December 2008 pointed to continuing growth even as the rest of the world remains mired in slowdown. Exports declined for the third straight month in December, but the moderate 1.1% drop to $12.7 billion from a year earlier was a big improvement on the sharp falls of 12.1% and 9.9% in October and November 2008, respectively. And as if to complement the improved export show during the month, imports grew by 8.8% to touch $20.25 billion. Just as weak shipments reflect distress in our export markets, strong import growth points to vigorous activity. Exports, however, suffered another sharp decline of 22% in January 2009 because of declining demands from the recession-hit Western markets, as per initial government estimates. The commerce secretary added that the sharp fall was a little unexpected. The modest 8.8% rise in December 2008 masks the vigour of imports growth, excluding oil: a whopping 31.9% ($15.54 billion). And thanks to falling crude prices, the oil import bill for December fell by 30.9% to touch $4.71 billion. What makes the spurt in imports significant is that India’s non-oil imports consist mostly of capital equipment and project-goods. Strong growth in this segment suggests robust domestic economic activity. The trade deficit for December 2008 narrowed to $7.57 billion, as compared with $10.07 billion in November 2008. This brings the cumulative trade deficit for the first nine months to $93.8 billion, 74% higher than the $58.98 billion in the year-ago period.