While the BJP and allies tussle over Narendra Modi’s candidature for the prime minister’s post and the party itself maintains a studied silence, a majority of urban Indians think the Gujarat CM should be the next PM.
In a survey conducted in 28 cities across the country by a Hindi news channel and Nielsen, Modi has emerged as the favourite, ahead of even Rahul Gandhi and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. While 42% of respondents wanted Modi as the next PM, only 29% were for Rahul Gandhi. Nitish Kumar got 12% in his favour.
The survey indicates a steady decline in the Congress’s popularity. If elections were held now, 27% potential voters would go with the saffron party, while only 18% would choose the Congress.
The dislike for the Congress is such that 46% respondents said they would not vote for a Congress led by Rahul Gandhi. PM Manmohan Singh’s ratings are even poor. Almost 68% believe his performance ranges from average to very poor, even though 66% feel he is non-corrupt but tolerates corrupt ministers.
Only 66% of those who voted for the Congress during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for it.
However, the BJP is gaining only 8% of this vote swing. At the same time, for the BJP, 82% of its voters will stick with it and the Congress would gain only 4% out of this exodus, clearly showing an opportunity for regional parties to do well in urban centres.
On Modi, the survey shows that he is a favourite even within the BJP. He gets almost double the responses in his favour as against party veteran L K Advani (51% to Advani’s 28%). Respondents also feel that if Modi is chosen PM candidate opposing allies (read JD-U) will eventually come around. Urban voters, however, do not exonerate the Gujarat CM for the 2002 riots completely and feel he must apologize for it.
NDTV commissioned Ipsos, a leading market research agency, to conduct fieldwork for an opinion poll from a sample size of almost 30,000, covering as many as 125 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the 18 big states (these account for over 20% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats). Each Lok Sabha constituency was selected using a statistical formula based on voting patterns of 2009 Lok Sabha Elections. In each Lok Sabha constituency, two to three assembly segments were selected at random where approximately 100 interviews were conducted in homes. For the voting intention question, the respondents were given a mock ballot paper on which the symbols of the parties were set out. They were asked to mark their preference on the ballot paper and then place the ballot paper in a mock ballot box.
Excerpts from this survey:
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Odisha
Uttar Pradesh
1 comment:
Good to see that Sushma has finally realised the way wind is blowing. Hope this puts an end to all PM aspirants within BJP who have no mass-following and can't win a Loksabha seat on their own. In Gujrath Modi is fighting elections on development plank, and some call him communal. Congress is fighting elections on religious plank and they are secular! Modi for PM, period. BJP will dig its own grave if it can't read pulse of people.
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