The Congress party posted a 3-2 victory in the assembly elections in five states,overcoming a high-pitched BJP attack on the government’s track record in tackling the economic slowdown, rising prices and terrorism. Clearly, the electorate in these states, which accounts for 15% of the country’s population and 20% of its GDP— voted for basic developmental issues, not even letting the recent terror attacks on Mumbai influence its decision.Much to the disappointment of the BJP, the Congress not only picked up Rajasthan and Mizoram, but also retained Delhi for an historic third consecutive term, overcoming the much-touted anti incumbency factor. “I am humbled. I am happy for the Congress Party. I am happy for the people of Delhi. Thank you for this gracious verdict,” Dikshit told supporters who had gathered at her residence.
The BJP did, however,retain control of two major states— Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh—but its punch lost much of its power after Delhi mascot Vijay Kumar Malhotra failed to pull off a victory in the Capital. “A younger chief ministerial candidate,perhaps,could have helped.Arun Jaitley could have been a better candidate,” BJP spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad told reporters.
Dikshit is expected to be sworn in as Delhi chief minister for a third time, while old war horse Lalthanhawla is likely to become Mizoram chief minister. The Rajasthan chief ministership may be open with the Congress running short of a simple majority. Ashok Gehlot, of course, is the strongest contender, but his chances could be marred given that several of his detractors have been elected. The BJP is unlikely to spring any surprises in Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, giving the incumbent chief ministers their due for leading the states to victory.
The elections, seen as a ‘semi-final’ ahead of the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for next year, has brought cheer to the Congress, which has been defeated in 13 states after coming to power at the Centre in 2004. Party circles on Monday ruled out the possibility of an early Lok Sabha election,but said the much-needed victory would enthuse not only the Congress rank and file in coming months, but also its UPA allies.
Although the BSP is unlikely to be a factor in government formation in any of the five states,it increased its vote share substantially, notching up seats in all states barring Mizoram. A nationally optimal mix of results—that’s the best way to read the state verdicts. The Congress, having won in post-26/11 elections in Delhi and Rajasthan, doesn’t have to be terrified about the so-called anti-terror vote. Its strategic response to Pakistan, therefore, need not be influenced by a political fear factor. This is good for India; its trillion dollar-plus economy is at stake. The BJP, having won MP and Chhattisgarh, but having lost Delhi and Rajasthan, should also learn not to overvalue aggressive anti-terror politics. That, too, is good for India. The party has also shown that influential leaders need not always fit the so-called articulate/charismatic mould. MP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is in some ways the star of this election because unlike Delhi’s Sheila Dikshit or Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh, and without taking anything away from them, Chauhan came into the job late, underwhelmed all observers, but won because of careful micro focused politics and a gentle personal style. He has forced observers to rethink the leadership paradigm. This is a nationally optimal outcome as well. The incumbency hypothesis, as our columnist notes, has been shown to be far less than foolproof. And that should make politicians have a little more confidence in the value of good administration.
The other big indicator from these elections—that the BSP hasn’t really emerged as a game changer in traditionally bipolar states—is also nationally optimal. The BSP went into these elections with the highest profile for its all-powerful leader, Mayawati. But Delhi, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would have returned probably the same verdict had the BSP not been present. This should be a humbling realisation for Mayawati, whose national ambitions should be tempered a bit now. The best set of outcomes for the general elections is that either a Congress-led or a BJP-led coalition comes to power. That way one gets the best guarantee for some broad policy continuity. Let’s not forget that by the time the next national government assumes power, India would be looking at the fiscal year—2009-10—that will be critical for determining the economy’s immediate-term growth prospects. Economic management will be crucial, perceptions about the government will be crucial. If these state elections indicate the performance limits of so-called third front players, India should feel comforted.
The BJP did, however,retain control of two major states— Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh—but its punch lost much of its power after Delhi mascot Vijay Kumar Malhotra failed to pull off a victory in the Capital. “A younger chief ministerial candidate,perhaps,could have helped.Arun Jaitley could have been a better candidate,” BJP spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad told reporters.
Dikshit is expected to be sworn in as Delhi chief minister for a third time, while old war horse Lalthanhawla is likely to become Mizoram chief minister. The Rajasthan chief ministership may be open with the Congress running short of a simple majority. Ashok Gehlot, of course, is the strongest contender, but his chances could be marred given that several of his detractors have been elected. The BJP is unlikely to spring any surprises in Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, giving the incumbent chief ministers their due for leading the states to victory.
The elections, seen as a ‘semi-final’ ahead of the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for next year, has brought cheer to the Congress, which has been defeated in 13 states after coming to power at the Centre in 2004. Party circles on Monday ruled out the possibility of an early Lok Sabha election,but said the much-needed victory would enthuse not only the Congress rank and file in coming months, but also its UPA allies.
Although the BSP is unlikely to be a factor in government formation in any of the five states,it increased its vote share substantially, notching up seats in all states barring Mizoram. A nationally optimal mix of results—that’s the best way to read the state verdicts. The Congress, having won in post-26/11 elections in Delhi and Rajasthan, doesn’t have to be terrified about the so-called anti-terror vote. Its strategic response to Pakistan, therefore, need not be influenced by a political fear factor. This is good for India; its trillion dollar-plus economy is at stake. The BJP, having won MP and Chhattisgarh, but having lost Delhi and Rajasthan, should also learn not to overvalue aggressive anti-terror politics. That, too, is good for India. The party has also shown that influential leaders need not always fit the so-called articulate/charismatic mould. MP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is in some ways the star of this election because unlike Delhi’s Sheila Dikshit or Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh, and without taking anything away from them, Chauhan came into the job late, underwhelmed all observers, but won because of careful micro focused politics and a gentle personal style. He has forced observers to rethink the leadership paradigm. This is a nationally optimal outcome as well. The incumbency hypothesis, as our columnist notes, has been shown to be far less than foolproof. And that should make politicians have a little more confidence in the value of good administration.
The other big indicator from these elections—that the BSP hasn’t really emerged as a game changer in traditionally bipolar states—is also nationally optimal. The BSP went into these elections with the highest profile for its all-powerful leader, Mayawati. But Delhi, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would have returned probably the same verdict had the BSP not been present. This should be a humbling realisation for Mayawati, whose national ambitions should be tempered a bit now. The best set of outcomes for the general elections is that either a Congress-led or a BJP-led coalition comes to power. That way one gets the best guarantee for some broad policy continuity. Let’s not forget that by the time the next national government assumes power, India would be looking at the fiscal year—2009-10—that will be critical for determining the economy’s immediate-term growth prospects. Economic management will be crucial, perceptions about the government will be crucial. If these state elections indicate the performance limits of so-called third front players, India should feel comforted.
No comments:
Post a Comment