19.7.14

Bloomberg Global Poll

Modi mania is taking hold across global markets. Financial professionals are now more bullish on India relative to the largest emerging markets than at any point in the past five years after Narendra Modi scored the biggest election victory in three decades, giving him a mandate to revive economic growth as prime minister. About 23% of respondents in the Bloomberg Global Poll said India offers one of the best investment opportunities among eight of the biggest markets worldwide, versus the 12% average for the other so-called BRIC nations, or Brazil, Russia and China. That gap is the widest since the survey began in 2009. 51% are optimistic on Modi's policies while those in favour of Brazil president Dilma Rousseff 's sank to a record 11%.
The BSE Sensex index surged 21% this year through on July 16 on optimism Modi's pledges to cut red tape and attract investment will boost Asia's third-largest economy after growth slowed to near a decade low. Exchange-traded funds that invest in the country lured more inflows than any other emerging market this year, while investors pulled money from Brazil as the economy sunk into stagflation under Rousseff 's watch.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has gained 6% this year, fueled by signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy and as concern eased that rising borrowing costs in the US will spur capital outflows. About 48% of respondents in the Bloomberg poll said the developing-nation stock index will climb in the next six months, versus 27% who said it will fall. The poll of 562 Bloomberg users was conducted July 15 and 16 by Selzer & Co, a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1% points.
Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa (IBOV) index has risen 8% this year on speculation Rousseff 's declining popular ity among voters will lead to new economic policies, financial professionals are turning more bearish. Just 7% of respondents said Brazil offers the best opportunities, matching the lowest mark the South American country has received since the poll's inception.
About 40% of respondents saw the worst opportunities in Russia. The Micex stock index and the ruble tumbled on Thursday on new US sanctions designed to punish president Vladimir Putin for failing to end support for rebels in Ukraine. Russian shares extended the selloff on July 18 after a Malaysian passenger jet was shot down in eastern Ukraine, killing all on board.

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