Tracking the Monsoon

If rains continue to be scarce, 2009 may be a drought year. The average rainfall of the season in the country is 890 mm and normal rains for the mid-August to end-of-September period are 324 mm. IMD’s deputy director general for weather forecasting A B Mazumdar said, “The rainfall should be 30% more than the 324 mm mark for the country to overcome a potential drought. This can happen only in case of unusual rainfall activity.’’ It would be highly optimistic to expect 100 mm excess rains in the coming days. The government is now clearly girding up for the worst. The agriculture ministry is considering Met predictions for better rainfall after August 15, but these now seem like the last throw of the dice.If the forecast for the next few days does not come good, pressure will mount on the government to declare a drought without waiting for the end of the monsoon. A senior minister said it was the IMD’s job to explain what the data was saying. It is up to the states to declare a drought, while at the Centre the agriculture ministry is the nodal department.But declaring a drought has political implications with the government seeing it as a distinctly feel-bad sentiment in the midst of its attempts to revive the economy. Commentators have been critical of the IMD’s long-range model. Even the decision to change the August prediction from 101% to 90% with a plusminus variation of 9% is too broad-band, hence imprecise. Pointing out that a drought cannot be technically declared until the end of the monsoon season, Mazumdar, however, added, “The probability of a drought this year appears more realistic.’’ With India having recorded 29% less than normal rainfall so far, the country has recorded 401 mm of rains when it ought to have received 566 mm. A drought year is declared in cases where 20% to 40% of the country’s total area is rainfall-deficient. At the same time, the deficiency for the June to September period should be 10% or more. This year, IMD had forecast 96% rains, with a 4% error margin in April. This went down to 93% in June. Making a departure from the two-stage forecast, the department issued a third forecast on August 10, further lowering its rainfall prediction to 87%.