IMD's Monsoon Forecast is spot on

In April this year, the India Meteorological Department had stuck its neck out and warned the country of a second straight drought this year. It was IMD's bleakest monsoon forecast, the first time it had predicted a rain shortfall of more than 10%. As it turned out, IMD was spot on.
As on September 24, the monsoon deficit for the season was 13%, as against the department's forecast of 12%. With less than a week to go for the end of the monsoon season (September 30), officials do not expect the deficit to change much.
IMD calls a countrywide monsoon shortfall of 10% or more as `deficient monsoon'.Popularly , it is known as a drought year -a term previously used by the department but later discontinued because, as an official put it, the entire country never faces a drought.
Although last year too, IMD had pared down its forecast in phases to eventually reflect the drought, this IMD prediction was a first in more than one way . It was the first time that IMD issued a forecast of deficient monsoon in April itself, and flowing from that, the first time that it accurately predicted a drought.
Officials say , coming as it did in the shadow of last year's drought, it wasn't easy for the department to go along with the scientific findings and issue a forecast warning of a second straight drought in the country .

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