Sticking to its June prediction of “above normal“ monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department in its final forecast update of the season said the rainfall in August-September is likely to be 107% of the long period average with a possibility of September getting “excess“ rain.
“The season's (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA, with a model error of 4%, as was forecasted in June,“ IMD said, adding that the probability of an above normal monsoon was a high 55%. An “above normal“ monsoon, according to IMD, is one where countrywide rainfall is 104% to 110% of the LPA.
The update did not revise any of the forecasts the department had made in June, including the prediction of August rains at 104% of LPA.
“We don't see the negative Indian Ocean Dipole-warming of eastern Indian Ocean that's sometimes linked with an adverse monsoon -impacting the monsoon, which is so far progressing as predicted,“ said D Sivananda Pai, IMD lead monsoon forecaster.Though nearly 21% of the country has received “deficient“ rainfall till July 31, good rainfall in many parts during June-July has already broken the cycle of two consecutive drought years.
“The season's (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA, with a model error of 4%, as was forecasted in June,“ IMD said, adding that the probability of an above normal monsoon was a high 55%. An “above normal“ monsoon, according to IMD, is one where countrywide rainfall is 104% to 110% of the LPA.
The update did not revise any of the forecasts the department had made in June, including the prediction of August rains at 104% of LPA.
“We don't see the negative Indian Ocean Dipole-warming of eastern Indian Ocean that's sometimes linked with an adverse monsoon -impacting the monsoon, which is so far progressing as predicted,“ said D Sivananda Pai, IMD lead monsoon forecaster.Though nearly 21% of the country has received “deficient“ rainfall till July 31, good rainfall in many parts during June-July has already broken the cycle of two consecutive drought years.
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