IMD sticks to Above Normal Monsoon forecast

Sticking to its June prediction of “above normal“ monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department in its final forecast update of the season said the rainfall in August-September is likely to be 107% of the long period average with a possibility of September getting “excess“ rain.
“The season's (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA, with a model error of 4%, as was forecasted in June,“ IMD said, adding that the probability of an above normal monsoon was a high 55%. An “above normal“ monsoon, according to IMD, is one where countrywide rainfall is 104% to 110% of the LPA.
The update did not revise any of the forecasts the department had made in June, including the prediction of August rains at 104% of LPA.
“We don't see the negative Indian Ocean Dipole-warming of eastern Indian Ocean that's sometimes linked with an adverse monsoon -impacting the monsoon, which is so far progressing as predicted,“ said D Sivananda Pai, IMD lead monsoon forecaster.Though nearly 21% of the country has received “deficient“ rainfall till July 31, good rainfall in many parts during June-July has already broken the cycle of two consecutive drought years.

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