India 2050

The Indian economy will register the second fastest growth between now and 2050 and emerge as the second biggest economy in the world by the middle of this century, according to a forecast by the consultancy group, PricewaterhouseCoopers, released on Friday. In terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), India is said to be on track to overtake Japan this year. The author of the report, PWC’s chief economist, John Hawksworth said: “India has the potential to be one of the three great economies of the 21st century, together with China and the US.” But he warned it would require significant improvement in “India’s energy and transport infrastructure, less red tape, increased education levels in rural areas, particularly for women, and the continuation of the open attitude to trade and investment seen over the past 20 years”. PWC estimates India (at an average of 8.1%) will grow much faster than China (5.9% and in 4th position), which at present is leading the pack of rapidly developing economies. Vietnam—at 8.8%—is pitched as the best performing in this respect; third place is, interestingly, occupied by Nigeria (7.9%) and the 5th slot by Indonesia (5.8%). Essentially, the compilation reflects an acceleration in the shift in economic power from West to the East. Comparatively, the old powerhouses fall behind over the next four decades. The US is projected to grow at 2.4%, the UK at 2.3%, France at 1.7%, Germany at 1.3% and Japan at 1%. In fact, by 2020, the emerging seven (E7)—China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey—will be bigger in size than the current G7—the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada, based on different price levels across countries. At market exchange rates, it would take the E7 a further 20 years to surpass the G7. The rankings for 2050 founded on GDP at PPP are China at number one, with the US 3rd, Brazil 4th and Japan 5th. Germany — currently at 5th — is destined to drop to 9th position and the UK to 10th, with Mexico and Indonesia surging past them.

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