CMIE pegs FY11 growth at 9.2%

Driven by an estimated 8.4% growth in the fourth quarter, the economy is expected to grow by 7.1% in the just-concluded fiscal and by a robust 9.2% in the current financial year, the leading economic think-tank CMIE has said. “We estimate the real gross domestic product (GDP) would have risen by 7.1% in fiscal 2009-10... and by 9.2% in 2010-11,” the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its report on Thursday. While GDP growth for the just-concluded fiscal is a tad lower than the 7.2-percentage point expansion that finance minister Pranab Mukherjee as well as the Central Statistical Organisation have been projecting, the current year projection is much above the minster’s 8.75% spike. In the fourth-quarter of FY10, GDP is estimated to have grown by an “impressive” 8.4%, the CMIE report said, adding during the first three-quarters of the past fiscal, real GDP grew by 6.7% compared to 7.1% in the same period of 2008-09. “The growth in 2009-10 would be driven by the rise in GDP from the industrial sector including construction”, it said, adding, “we estimate that the industry sector would have grown by 9.4% in 2009-10, with the manufacturing segment clocking a robust 10.3% growth.” Real GDP from mining and quarrying is estimated to have grown by 10.3% in 2009-10, on top of a 9.7% growth in 2008-09. For FY 11, the CMIE report said that it expected that all the three broad sectors of the economy — agriculture and allied sector, manufacturing sector and services sector — to improve performance.

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