India could be the World's fastest-growing economy

Projected to grow at 7%, India has the potential to be the world's fastest-growing economy over the next decade till 2024, far outpacing China that could slow to 4.3%, says an influential study by Harvard's Centre for International Development (CID) on the basis of the latest available 2014 trade data. Helmed by Prof Ricardo Hausmann, who heads the CID and leads research for the Atlas of Economic Complexity, the study presents an optimistic picture for India based on increasing sophistication of its industry , ability to adapt to changing global demand and variety in exports.
“India has made important gains in productive capabilities, allowing it to diversify its exports into more complex products, including pharmaceuticals and even electronics,“ Prof Hausmann says in a press release. Hausmann notes that India's recent gains in complexity of its economy , along with an ability to continue improving, will drive higher incomes. “This will position India to lead global economic growth over the coming decade,“ he says. Arguing that gains in economic complexity have historically translated into higher incomes, Hausmann says China has already realized these benefits and has doubled per capita in come in less than a decade Along with growth projections, the CID released new country rankings in the 2014 economic complexity index which incorporates data stretching back to 1962, that places India at the 42nd spot but notes an improvement by five positions.
The rankings continue to see Japan, Germany and Switzerland leading the table while the UK, the US and France (10th, 13th and 16th have all slipped. Oil economies like Venezuela have slipped the fastest, supporting the notion that a surfeit of mineral wealth can be a curse as it makes governments lethargic and encourages rentierism.
Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have the top gainers clocking fast per capita growth. This includes China that has climbed an impressive 16 positions to 17th -even though its long term prospects are dimmer -and South Korea at 4th having gained 11 positions. The Harvard study recognizes that knowhow, which enriches a community's complexity , is often supplied by migrants.“Immigration policy must confront the fact that many of the firms that help diversify a country and drive its growth are started by immigrants and foreign firms,“ Hausmann says.
Researchers argue economic complexity is remarkably accurate in explaining differences in income levels and predicting growth trajectories.“Sustained growth is fundamentally human driven. The greater the diversity of productive knowhow in a place, the more complex products it can make, which underpins income gains,“ says Timothy Cheston, a CID team member.
The CID projections are bullish on east Africa, with Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya in the top 10, all predicted to grow at least 5.5% annually .The growth forecast is also favourable for south Asian countries like the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam that could grow above global averages.The forecast for advanced economies is more muted with the US expected to grow at 2.8%.