Sometime by 2015....

India may overtake China as the world’s fastest growing major economy by 2015, as it doubles infrastructure investment and adds six-fold more workers than its northern neighbour, Morgan Stanley said.India’s growth may accelerate to 9.5% between 2011 to 2015, Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya said in an interview from Singapore. India’s GDP has expanded at an average 7.1% over the decade through the third quarter of 2009, compared with 9.1% in China.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government plans to double spending on roads, ports and power plants to $1 trillion in the five years to 2017 to improve the quality of infrastructure that’s ranked below war-ravaged Ivory Coast and Sri Lanka. An increasing number of people joining the workforce and rising salaries will also help boost growth, Ahya said. Within the next two years, India will start matching China’s growth rate, Ahya said. After that “there will be a clear divergence of growth rates between the two countries,” he said.
India will add 136 million workers, more than the population of Japan, by 2020 compared with 23 million that China will add, Ahya said. That will help the nation tap into a rising pool of savings and help finance infrastructure projects, he said. Poor transport and lack of other facilities in India could cost 1.1 percentage points of growth, or $200 billion in fiscal 2017, McKinsey & Co had said in a report last year.
“There is a large deficit in our physical infrastructure which affects our economic development adversely,” Singh said in a speech on the Independence Day. “The resources required to create good physical infrastructure are difficult for the government alone to mobilise. Therefore, we have endeavoured to involve the private sector in our efforts.”
India also needs to boost manufacturing in order to provide jobs for the expanding labour pool, according to Ahya. “We believe labour law reforms would be needed to support growth in labour-intensive industries,” Ahya said after Morgan Stanley unveiled it report “India and China: New Tigers of Asia, Part III.”
India is ranked 89 out of 133 nations for its infrastructure, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index.
India’s $1.3 trillion economy may accelerate to 8.5% in the year starting April 1 as Asia’s third-largest economy rebounds from the global recession, PM Singh had said on March 23.