A near Congress-mukt Bharat

BJP could not have hoped for a better setting to celebrate the Modi government's second anniversary. The results mark the revival of its `Congress-mukt Bharat' project, while boldly underlining its own political ascendancy . The doubts raised by electoral humiliations in Delhi and Bihar have largely been allayed and the party seems better placed to face tough challenges like the UP poll next year.
Assam is not a totally new political geography for BJP . But its success in taking control of the gateway to the north-east and notching up impressive vote shares in the non-traditional territories of Kerala and Bengal point to its growing footprint and, by implication, acceptance of, or indifference to, its postures on controversial issues. By virtue of BJP-controlled or allied state governments holding 69% of India's territory while Congress has been forced to retreat to 14%, the Modi-Shah combine can well lay claim to running the country's only national party.
Coming near the midway point of the NDA government, the outcome on Thursday will provide it with the necessary reassurance to press ahead with its development agenda.
Coming as it does in the wake of the `Bharat Mata ki Jai' and JNU controversies, it may also encourage the regime to sharpen its ideological plank, especially on cultural issues. A weakened Congress, coupled with rivalries with regional bosses, represent a happy augury for passage of stuck legislations like GST. But while BJP has staged a comeback, two fiesty ladies, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, have silenced critics with convincing wins. Mamata's Trinamool Congress flattened the Left-Congress political experiment, winning 211 seats on her own, against 184 in 2011 when she allied with Congress. Jayalalithaa's win was closer, but the AIADMK boss, also contesting on her own, crossed the finishing line well ahead of the DMK-Congress combine.
Didi overwhelmed the opposition, while Jaya ran a superb tactical race to beat the revolving door syndrome in Tamil Nadu as she retained her vote share and picked up crucial chunks from opponents. The AIADMK and TMC successes reinforce the impression that regional satraps remain the principle challengers to BJP's domination of the political landscape. Though regional leaders are divided by rivalries and ambitions, Mamata has announced that she would seek a “federal front“ to represent the non-NDA political space while suggesting that Congress can be part of it ­ minus the Left.
The loss of Assam and Kerala and its ignominious performance in Bengal despite an awkward tie-up with Left pushes Congress deeper into the throes of the crisis it has stared at since its rout in May 2014 when Narendra Modi reduced it to a historical low of 44 Lok Sabha seats. Assam is the fifth state after Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and J&K the party has lost to BJP since the mauling two Mays ago.
If the present is tense, the future looks hardly reassuring for a party which has shrunk to Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Of those, Karnataka is the only one with double-digit representation in Lok Sabha and the growing perception is that in the state polls due next year, the `unpopular' incumbent will be up against a formidable challenge from a recharged BJP . And the odds will be stacked against it in UP and Gujarat which also go to polls next year.
The results suggest that Rahul Gandhi's politics of accusations and blockading in Parliament is not working, at least not at the moment. He seemed confident that the “suit-boot-ki-sarkar“ jibe had taken the sheen off the Modi government.Verdicts suggest that is no longer working, and may require him to return to the drawing board again.
There will be a churn within the party which is increasingly antsy over the absence of signs of recovery even though two years have passed since the 2014 rout, and the ability of the leadership with its Left-leaning politics to deliver in a polity with a large and growing aspirational population.Clarity on who exactly , Sonia or Rahul, is in charge may help. So far, there has been no sign that Rahul wants the ambiguity to end.
The defeats will dent Congress's claim to being the natural leader of the anti-BJP alliance being pitched by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar . Neither Mamata nor Jaya are expected to acquiesce to Congress's leadership.
The party's new-found ally , Left, would have been more indulgent but, after the debilitating blow in West Bengal, will lack the heft to influence others. The possibility of Nitish emerging as an alternative choice becomes stronger. Sharad Pawar has backed the JD(U) boss, and on Thursday , Mamata counted him among her friends, a description she would not use for Sonia. Nitish reacted to the result by renewing his call for “maximum possible unity“ against BJP , an acknowledgement that the goal of “total unity“ is elusive.
The disarray among opponents should benefit BJP in the 2019 LS polls ­ an arena where themes of stability and credible alternative usually have more resonance than in state-level duels.
In fact, with its steady diminution, Congress risks losing the “natural party of governance“ tag to Modi-led BJP .