Obama's India visit

Go for a solution to the Kashmir issue and help bring stability to the region in return for a ticket to UN Security Council membership and fulfilling your big-power aspirations. That’s the broad message US President Barack Obama will be bringing to New Delhi during his November visit, preparations for which are in full swing in Washington DC. The Kashmir settlement-for-seat at high table idea (euphemism for UNSC membership) is being discussed animatedly at the highest levels of the US administration, according to sources. Obama himself has decided to revive the process of a US push in this direction, albeit discreetly because of New Delhi’s sensitivities.
Key administration officials have confirmed that the UNSC issue will be on Obama’s agenda when he comes calling. The President is expected to announce an incremental American support to India’s candidature during his address to the joint session of parliament, depending on New Delhi’s receptiveness to resolving the Kashmir tangle. The clearest insight into Obama’s thinking on the matter comes from Bob Woodward’s latest book, Obama’s War, in which top US policymakers are shown mulling over defusing the Kashmir situation as part of an exit strategy for the US from the Af-Pak theatre. “Why can’t we have straightforward talks with India on why a stable Pakistan is crucial?’’ Obama is reported as musing at one meeting. “India is moving toward a higher place in its global posture. A stable Pakistan would help.’’ Implicit in the rumination is the idea that settling the Kashmir tangle will mollify Pakistan where, US officials say, hardliners are using the unresolved issue as an excuse to breed an army of terrorists aimed at bleeding India.
External affairs minister S M Krishna brought up the H1B visa fee hike and the outsourcing ban issues during his meeting with US secretary of state Hillary Clinton in Washington on Tuesday.

The spoiler to any settlement is the hardline Pakistani military and its jihadist proxies for whom attrition and confrontation with India is an article of faith. In fact, the solution Washington has in mind (also proposed by Riedel) is likely to be more palatable to New Delhi than to Islamabad. It’s on the same lines as that agreed upon by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan’s deposed military leader Pervez Musharraf before the latter was turfed out of office—the LoC would become the international border, but it would be a soft, permeable border, allowing Kashmiris on both sides to move. The remaining safeguards, procedures, etc are a matter of detail. “President Obama’s strategy for dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan always needed a Kashmir component to succeed; that need is becoming more urgent and obvious now. His trip to India in November will be key to addressing it,’’ Riedel said in a commentary this week. “India cannot become a global power with a prosperous economy if its neighbour is a constant source of terror armed with the bomb. A sick Pakistan is not a good neighbour,’’ he added, echoing Obama’s words (Woodward’s book also suggests he influenced Obama’s thinking).
Riedel says the President’s challenge is to quietly help Islamabad and New Delhi work behind the scenes to get back to the deal Singh and Musharraf had negotiated. “He will have a chance to work this subtly when he visits India.’’ But Riedel and other US policymakers portrayed in Woodward’s book also recognize that the biggest hurdle to a settlement is a hardline Pakistani military. While the civilian leadership will like to embrace the deal, “it is unclear if the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, is on board’’, it says. Woodward’s book shows that most top US officials, save Admiral Mike Mullen, believe Kayani to be a closet jihadi and a two-faced “liar’’ intent on perpetuating war with India. “I’ll be the first to admit it, I’m India-centric,’’ Kayani is quoted as telling US officials in one exchange. Although three top cabinet principals from India—S M Krishna, defence minister A K Antony, and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee—are in the US this week and next, exchanges on the UNSC and Kashmir are said to be taking place between President Obama and Prime Minister Singh through trusted interlocutors such as NSA Shivshankar Menon, who is also in Washington DC this week.