29.7.13

Of Declining Poverty....



The number of India’s poor fell to less than a quarter of its population in 2011-12, according to a Planning Commission estimate, giving the government a reason to cheer amid the recent raft of disappointing macro economic data.
The commission said the number of those below the poverty line declined to 21.9% of the population in 2011-12, from 29.8% in 2009-10 and 37.2% in 2004-05.
The estimate, based on a survey of household consumer expenditure, showed rural poverty declined to 25.7% from 41.8% in 2004-05, while in urban areas it fell to 13.7% from 25.7%.
The sharp drop was attributed to the high real growth in recent years, which raised the consumption capacity.
The data showed that nearly 2 crore people were pulled out of poverty every year from 2004-05 onwards, which resulted in a sharp drop in those below the Tendulkar poverty line to 27 crore in 2011-12 from 40.7 crore in 2004-05.
The national level poverty ratio is based on Suresh Tendulkar methodology, which uses the mixed reference period after National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) tabulated expenditure of about 1.2 lakh households across the country. The national poverty line has been fixed at Rs.816 per capita per month for rural areas and Rs.1,000 for urban areas.
“Thus, for a family of five, the all-India poverty line in terms of consumption expenditure would amount to about Rs.4,080 per month in rural areas and Rs.5,000 per month in urban areas,” the Planning Commission said.


The government has set up a committee under C Rangarajan to review the Tendulkar methodology that has been criticised in the past for fixing poverty lines that were too low at Rs.22.42 per person in rural areas and Rs.28.65 in urban areas.
“Since the data from the NSS (National Sample Survey) 68th round (2011-12) of household consumer expenditure survey is now available, and the Rangarajan committee recommendation will only be available a year later, the Planning Commission has updated the poverty estimates for the year 2011-12 as per the methodology recommended by Tendulkar committee,” the Planning Commission said in a release.
The release showed there would still be a decline in the poverty rates from 2004-05 levels even if a method other than the Tendulkar methodology was used to determine the poverty line.
Data from the survey in 2009-10 has not been used for comparison as the year was a drought year. In 2004-05, 37.2% of the country’s population was below the poverty line with ratios for rural and urban areas at 41.8% and 25.7%.
The rate of decline was 0.74% per annum during the 11-year period from 1993-94 to 2004-05.
Uttar Pradesh had the highest number of poor people at 598.19 lakh, which is 29.4% of the state’s total population followed by Bihar at 358.15 lakh (33.7%), Madhya Pradesh at 234.06 lakh (31.6%), Maharashtra at 197.92 lakh (17.3%) and West Bengal at 184.98 lakh (19.9%).
Prime minister Manmohan Singh had last week highlighted the UPA government’s record in poverty reduction, contrasting with the lower fall in the NDA regime and earlier.
“The percentage of population below the poverty line declined at 0.75 percentage points per year before our government came to office in 2004-05. It has fallen more than 2 percentage points per year between 2004-05 and 2011-12,” Singh said at an industry association function last week.

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