15.4.15

El Nino chances at 70%

Prospects of an irregular monsoon this year have increased, with the Australian weather agency raising the chances of an El Nino occurring this summer to 70%, up from 50% in its previous update. The periodic warming of waters in central and east Pacific Ocean, which leads to changes in wind patterns that impact global weather, depresses the summer monsoon in India. This is not always the case though.
The Australian update comes five days after the US national weather agency put out a similar forecast. IMD too had predicted a 50% chance of El Nino this year.
If an El Nino does affect this year's monsoon, it would be the second successive disruption. An evolving El Nino had hit the first half of the monsoon season last year before dissipating. The season ended with an 11% rain deficit, leading to drought in many districts, particularly in north India.

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