Raising the spectre of a second successive year of deficient rains, the India Meteorological Department has predicted below normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season with a 33% probability of rains being less than 90%, commonly referred to as a drought.
“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%,“ said Union earth science minister Harsh Vardhan, announcing IMD's first long range forecast for the monsoon. The forecast spells further bad news for the farm sector which has had poor back-to-back kharif and rabi seasons. Harsh Vardhan said there was no reason to panic, as government agencies were prepared to take all necessary measures to deal with the below normal rainfall situation.
As per IMD's first stage forecast, there is a 35% probability of a `below normal' monsoon with rains in the 90% to 96% range. The odds on normal rains (96%-104%) were placed at 28%, while there was a worrying 33% chance that rains could slip below the 90% mark.
Ministry of earth science secretary Shailesh Nayak said initial predictions indicate poor rains in the agriculturally important northwest India as well as in the central parts of the country, as compared to south India. “The main factor behind the prediction of below-par rains is the high chance that El Nino, which has already developed, would continue through the Indian summer,“ D Sivananda Pai, IMD's lead monsoon forecaster said.
As in the past few years, IMD also released an experimental forecast using its more modern coupled dynamical model, which predicts the all India monsoon rainfall to be 91% of average. In April last year, facing a similar situation of a growing El Nino, IMD had predicted `below normal' monsoon with 95% rainfall. The monsoon eventually produced 88% rains in June-September, making 2014 a drought year (IMD prefers to call below 90% rains as `deficient' monsoon). As usual, IMD will issue an update to its forecast in June, when region-wise and monthly predictions will be released.
“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%,“ said Union earth science minister Harsh Vardhan, announcing IMD's first long range forecast for the monsoon. The forecast spells further bad news for the farm sector which has had poor back-to-back kharif and rabi seasons. Harsh Vardhan said there was no reason to panic, as government agencies were prepared to take all necessary measures to deal with the below normal rainfall situation.
As per IMD's first stage forecast, there is a 35% probability of a `below normal' monsoon with rains in the 90% to 96% range. The odds on normal rains (96%-104%) were placed at 28%, while there was a worrying 33% chance that rains could slip below the 90% mark.
Ministry of earth science secretary Shailesh Nayak said initial predictions indicate poor rains in the agriculturally important northwest India as well as in the central parts of the country, as compared to south India. “The main factor behind the prediction of below-par rains is the high chance that El Nino, which has already developed, would continue through the Indian summer,“ D Sivananda Pai, IMD's lead monsoon forecaster said.
As in the past few years, IMD also released an experimental forecast using its more modern coupled dynamical model, which predicts the all India monsoon rainfall to be 91% of average. In April last year, facing a similar situation of a growing El Nino, IMD had predicted `below normal' monsoon with 95% rainfall. The monsoon eventually produced 88% rains in June-September, making 2014 a drought year (IMD prefers to call below 90% rains as `deficient' monsoon). As usual, IMD will issue an update to its forecast in June, when region-wise and monthly predictions will be released.
No comments:
Post a Comment