The weather office revised its southwest monsoon forecast to 88% of average rainfall with the El Nino effect apparently having taken hold, presenting the Narendra Modi government with a challenge in case the prediction comes true. The new estimate is lower than the 93% forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in April.
Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala around June 5, four days behind schedule, the weather office said Tuesday . “In 2015, we expect deficit rainfall for the country . In July (and) August, which are crucial for the agriculture sector, rain deficit will be 8% and 10%, respectively . The highest impact of weak rainfall will be seen in northwest India--a 15% deficit for the season,“ said DS Pai, IMD's head of long-range forecasting. The country received 88% of average rainfall last year.
Pai said statistical and dynamic models indicated deficient rain this season. The statistical model generates a forecast based on historical data while the dynamic one involves three-dimensional mathematical simulation of the atmosphere.
However, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services said it would stick to the forecast of 102% of the long-period average (LPA).Average June-September rainfall over India would be 89 cm, it said. “We expect normal monsoon rains this year,“ said Skymet CEO Jatin Singh. “We are also looking at decent June and July rainfall. We have an evolving Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which might insulate us from the impact of El Nino.“ A positive IOD generally makes for a good monsoon. El Nino refers to the warming of the Pacific Ocean that results in adverse weather patterns across the world, including a bad monsoon. Singh said the country got below normal rainfall in consecutive years in 1904-5, 1965-66 and 1985-86-87. IMD provided an error range for its prediction.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient,“ IMD said in its release. “Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of the long-period average with a model error of ±4%.“
It further forecast monsoon rain in northwest India at 85% of the average, at 90% in central India, at 92% in the southern peninsula and at 90% in northeast India, with a model error of ± 8%.
At the micro level, it will affect the incomes of farmers and their purchasing capacity.
With the weather office further lowering its monsoon forecast, the equity markets plummeted, particularly since the interpretation was that any further rate cuts will only come once it is clear whether there's any adverse rain impact on agriculture and prices, which would mean waiting until later in the year.
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