The El Nino phenomenon, which has often disrupted rainfall in India, has intensified to a level that exceeds its record set in 1997, but meteorologists are hopeful that a rain-boosting phenomenon over the Indian Ocean will help boost rainfall in the country throughout July .
They also point out that a similar development had helped neutralise the impact of El Nino in 1997, ensuring normal monsoon that year. The widely-respected Australian weather office said that the dreaded El Nino is strengthening further and would continue in the second half of the year.
“The 2015 El NiƱo continues to strengthen. Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week,“ it said, adding that models indicate further consolidation is likely.
At the same time, three out of five international models have suggested that the rain-boosting Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is turning positive. IOD refers to differences in temperature between the western and eastern part of the Indian Ocean. A `positive' IOD period, which indicates warmer water in western Indian Ocean or the Arabian Sea, tend to boost the monsoon. Weathermen say it strengthened the monsoon in 2006.
DS Pai, head of long-range forecasting at the India Meteorological Department, said the IOD was currently neutral in the positive side.“As per our forecast, the current warm neutral IOD conditions over Indian Ocean are likely to continue throughout the summer and till the end of the year. A positive IOD in the September-November season will make no impact on the monsoon rains,“ he said.
He said the moderate El Nino conditions currently prevailing are likely to reach moderate to strong level during the monsoon season and continue till early part of the next year.
International forecasters have been almost unanimous in issuing warnings that El Nino, associated with warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will disrupt global rainfall patterns, which can parch parts of Asia and Australia, and trigger storms and floods in other regions.
India's worst drought in 37 years in 2009 took place in an El Nino year.Food prices shot up by an annual 20%, leading to persistently high inflation for years. This year, the national weather office has forecasted a 12% deficiency in the monsoon, but private forecaster Skymet has sharply differed and predicted normal rainfall. Rainfall so far in June has been more than 20% in excess.
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