12.2.15

Of GDP growth in FY15....


The Indian economy is forecast to grow 7.4% in 2014-15 after a robust 7.5% expansion in the October-December quarter, overtaking China as one of the fastest growing major economies but the data surprised economists. The economy is expected to grow faster than previous fiscal’s 6.9% and above the expected 5.5% growth under the old series.
The Chinese economy had grown 7.3% in the last quarter and Monday’s data showed that India’s December quarter (Q3) growth had outpaced China’s. The World Bank and the IMF had forecast that the India will outpace China’s growth in 2016-17. The CSO data showed the economy grew 8.2% in the July-September quarter and 6.5% in the April-June quarter, Under the old series, growth in the September quarter was 5.3% and for the June quarter the figure was 5.7%.
Last week, the CSO revised upwards the GDP growth for 2013-14 to 6.9% from the previously reported 4.7% due to a change in the base year to 2011-12 and a new method of measuring the size of the economy. The sharp revision has attracted criticism and some economists have expressed doubts about the numbers and the methodology.
Economists expect the economy to recover but they said there is unlikely to be any change in RBI’s stance on rates, which is guided by the inflation trajectory.

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