Monsoon predictions

El Nino is likely to hit rains in India but the country may escape an overall drought, private weather company Skymet said in the first forecast by any agency about this year’s monsoon.
Rainfall in the season is likely to be below normal at 94% of the long range average, it said.
Releasing its assessment some 10 days before the official India Meteorological Department’s monsoon prediction, Skymet said rains are likely to be patchy in June and July but would pick up in August, although still remaining below par at 98% that month.
“The weakness in monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving El Nino,” said Skymet CEO Jatin Singh. On the brighter side, he said there were indications that El Nino’s progress may halt mid-way into the monsoon season, thus allowing better rains in August.
El Nino is the name given to periodic warming of sea surface waters in equatorial east and central Pacific, which leads to changes in wind patterns, impacting weather across parts of the globe. It also generally weakens the Indian monsoon.
Skymet said it statistically analyzed data from dynamical climate models of international agencies to put together what it called its monsoon ‘foreshadow’ for this year. The forecast has a 4% margin of error, it cautioned.
The weather company, which began releasing a monsoon outlook in 2012, said this year’s monsoon is likely to have a weak start followed by staggered progress across the country.
“Some parts of the country are likely to see drought,” said D R Sikka, a retired IMD meteorologist who assisted in the exercise.
Skymet said poor rains may hit northwest India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan) and central-west India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, north interior Karnataka and Telangana).