6.10.17

PM Takes on Critics


Prime Minister Narendra Modi intervened in the economy debate and, in a fiercely combative speech peppered with both rhetorical flourishes and hard data, slammed his government's critics and made the case that growth is on track, policy making is robust and economic fundamentals are strong.
In a highly significant observation, addressing concerns of the business community, the PM said: “Businessmen and traders now returning to mainstream may be worried that old records will be checked. We will not allow that to happen... I welcome you now, leave the old things behind and do not be worried. I am with you in the future.“

He also said the government will review GST procedures and remove bottlenecks.The speech appeared to have four purposes.

First, to confront head-on expert criticism of the economy with facts and data sets on leading indicators of growth like spends on consumer durables and commercial vehicles as well as data on low inflation, low current account deficit, record forex reserves, high levels of foreign investment, faster road construction and improved tax compliance.

Second, the PM's speech seemed to be aimed at his political critics like the Congress by reminding everyone of “gloomy“ economic numbers during the previous government's rule.

Third, the speech reiterated his often-made point that demonetisation and GST, which some critics have blamed for the dip in growth, were reforms aimed at “putting a premium on honesty in the economy“. “People now think fifty times before dealing in black money ,“ Modi said, making the point that his government has sought to “institutionalise honesty“.

Fourth, and perhaps in politically most potent part of the speech, the PM took on critics “within“.


Former finance minister Yashwant Sinha and former disinvestment minister Arun Shourie, who were part of the Vajpayee government, recently attacked the government's economic performance.

Referring to Shalya ­ a character in Mahabharata who always spread pessimism and fought for Kauravas despite being a Pandava kin ­ Modi said, “There are many Shalyas today...they spread pessimism and get a good night's sleep only after they spread gloom and hopelessness.“ “A one quarter dip in growth was fodder to them,“ the PM said, in an apparent reference to the likes of Sinha and Shourie.

Addressing directly the recent dip in quarterly GDP growth to 5.7%, the PM said too much is being made by “pessimists“.

“In last 3 years, India has seen 7.5% average growth,“ Modi said. “This time, the last quarter's growth is less...we agree. But the government is working to reverse this. We are ready to take decisions and we have the capability to do it.“

The PM said his government “will take all required steps to improve growth“, adding “our steps will put country in a new league of development.“

Post-speech, there were tweets saying that the PM quoted RBI's growth figures wrongly today. But there was immediate response from the government saying when the PM had mentioned 7.7% GDP growth rate, he was referring to RBI's estimate for the fourth quarter, and not the annual growth estimate. “Informed people have said economic fundamentals are strong,“ the PM said and after telling his audience ­ company secretaries ­ that “I am no economist and have never claimed to be one“, he said the tone and tenor of criticism of recent GDP growth makes it imperative that everyone gets the “right perspective“.

The PM listed a number of bad-to-average economic performance data points under the previous Congress-led UPA government. Employing his trademark combative style, the PM said, “Is this the first time that GDP growth in one quarter has gone to 5.7%? During the last government's term, in 6 years there were 8 times when growth was below 5.7% or same.“

He went on to say such low numbers during Congress rule were worse for the economy because the general economic situation was “worse“. “Such falls were more harmful for the economy because in those years, India had higher inflation, higher fiscal deficit,“ he said.

Staying on growth numbers, Modi made a caustic reference to pundits who he said found the central statistics office's revised growth estimation model suspicious when growth rate was 7.5% under his government, but found CSO's model fine when growth dipped to 5.7%.

The PM quoted a large number of economic data points while arguing that economic fundamentals were strong. Drawing comparisons between his and the previous government's performance, he said, “10% inflation has come down to 2.5%, almost 4% current account deficit has come down to 1%, fiscal deficit has come down from 4.5% to 3.5%, foreign investors are doing record investment and foreign exchange reserve are now up by 25%“.

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