India's growth to surge

A Harvard University study has projected a dramatic fall in China's economic growth, to 4.41 per cent, in the coming years until 2025. On the other hand, India would perform extremely well, growing at 7.72 per cent during the period, Havard's Center for International Development said in a study . “The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade,“ it said.

What is significant is that even Indonesia, Vietnam, Uganda, Kenya and Mexico are expected to perform a lot better than the world's second-biggest economy, according to the report. “China's rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth,“ CID researchers said, adding, “The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 per cent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant.“

Elaborating, Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID and professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, said, “The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years.“

The study said, “The growth projections are based on measures of each country's economic complexity , which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.“

The researchers emphasised that there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realise faster growth.

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