Below normal rain for rest of season

An evolving El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will impact the rest of the monsoon in the country.

The rainfall for the August to September season could be below normal, 95% of the Long Period Average with a model error of plus or minus 8%, the India Meteorological Department indicated in a forecast.

Tercile probabilities in the forecast for the same period indicated a 47% probability for below normal rainfall, and 41% probability of normal rainfall. The probability of an above normal rainfall was just 12%.

Rainfall over 106% of the LPA is above normal, less than 94% is below normal and between the range of 94-106% for the August to September period is normal.

A senior met department official said that a warming trend has been noticed in the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean. Such warming is an indicator of the development of El Nino in the latter part of the season.

“The warming in the sea surface temperatures can induce some changes in the atmosphere which may affect the second half of the monsoon,” the official added.

Meteorologist and all-India Internet Weather Radio Station founder J R Kulkarni said, “ Normal and above normal probabilities in the tercile forecasts add up to 53%, so there is more probability of normal rain during the second half.”

IMD additional director general M Mohapatra said the probability of above-normal rain in the second half of the season has been ruled out.

“The probability of below normal rain in the second half of the season is 47% and that of normal rain is 41%. There is little difference between the two forecast probabilities. So, the latter part of the monsoon season could have either normal or below normal rain,” he said.

The forecast said mid-season rainfall over the country till July end suggested that distribution of rainfall is “very good over of the country except Bihar, Jharkhand and northeastern states.”

Rainfall during August is likely to be 96% of LPA, plus or minus 9%, and higher than the 94% forecast in May.

Meanwhile, there are now eight deficient districts with below normal rain. These include Aurangabad, Nandurbar, Jalna, Buldana, Sangli, Beed, Solapur and Dhule.

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