India poised to be a $10 trillion economy by 2030: Biz Leaders

Indian and global business leaders came together during the ET Global Business Summit in the capital and unanimously agreed that India will breach the $10-trillion GDP mark, which is four times bigger than its current size, by 2030.

But to do that, the country may have to adopt several unorthodox measures. For instance, with around 120 million people set to join the Indian workforce, skilling them in a short span of time is essential, said global managing partner of McKinsey & Co, Dominic Barton.

“You cannot do that with conventional education,” said Barton. Taking the example of online courses that have been adopted successfully across the world, by even people in the middle of their careers, time frames of educating or imparting skill to people should be shortened, Barton added.

The time is ripe for local entrepreneurs to make bold decisions, Rana Kapoor, founder and CEO of Yes Bank, said. “Today, we have a global economy growing at 3.9%.” If India manages to tap into the tail winds that are being created as a result of that, Kapoor said, the country’s economy may start growing at 9% in the next one and half years.

A similar enthusiasm was shown by Naspers chief executive Bob van Dijk, who reckoned India will witness e-commerce sales of $150 billion within 10 years, a 10X growth from the current number.

“Currently e-commerce penetration as a percentage of retail is 3-4%. If you look at global benchmarks, probably UK is around 18-19%. China went from sub-10 to 17% in five years, so if India can get to 15% internet penetration in five years, you will be talking about 10X,” said Dijk. “What we have seen in China is that explosive growth drives innovation, I think the innovation that will come out of India will actually be viewed by rest of the world.”

When very large e-commerce businesses like Flipkart come to scale, they will take a bigger role in the lives of the average Indian than they would ever do in Western economies, he added. And, when asked about the Nirav Modi scam that rocked the nation and cast doubts on the robustness of its banking system, global chairman of KPMG International, Bill Thomas said, “When this happens, how a country responds makes the difference. Trust is going to be essential to drive the growth that you are talking about.”

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