IMD hints at El Nino from February

The India Meteorological Department has indicated an increased probability of El Nino conditions from February next year, probably resulting in above-normal summer temperatures.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation is an irregular periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The warming phase, which is thought to impact India’s southwest monsoon, is known as El Nino, while the cooling phase is La Nina.

IMD officials said it was too early to say whether the weather event will impact the 2019 monsoon. An IMD source said El Nino might start weakening by spring next year.

A recent probability forecast for El Nino and La Nina by the IMD indicated maximum probability for ENSO neutral conditions (neither an El Nino event nor a La Nina event) from October to February next year. Thereafter, an increased probability for El Nino conditions is seen from February to July, the forecast said.

An IMD official said that if one went by consensus of various experts and models, there was a good chance of an El Nino event during early next year. He said there could also be a chance of an increase in summer temperatures in 2019 because of El Nino .

A scientist of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said whenever there is an El Nino during summer, temperatures tend to rise, with increased chances of stronger or more severe heat waves. 

No comments: